What expert says about the possible Istanbul earthquake?

After the 7.7 and 7.6 magnitude earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, the expected Istanbul earthquake came from experts, one after the other. Which expert says what, the answers are in our news...

Türkiye is trying to heal the wounds of two major earthquake disasters.

The first earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 and the second with a magnitude of 7.6 affected 11 provinces and caused great destruction in 10 provinces.

Shaken by two major earthquakes on February 6, 2023, the eyes of the country were also turned to the statements of experts regarding the expected Istanbul earthquake.

However, different evaluations among experts on this subject also caused uneasiness.

With the 'Quick Scan Method' carried out by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) on buildings related to the measurement of building durability in the city, it has been announced that 318 buildings are in a position to collapse where they stand.

How will the possible Marmara earthquake affect Istanbul and the surrounding provinces?" Explanations of the experts on the question:

TIME IS COMING FOR ISTANBUL

All scientific research shows that the time is coming in Istanbul," said Naci Görür, noting that the situation is not good at all.

'THE ONE OF THE EXPLANATIONS IS NOT SCIENCE'

Prof. Dr. Cenk Yaltırak expressed his reaction to some statements, "It is not science for someone to say the same thing over and over again in a region with constant earthquakes."

Yaltırak also emphasized that there are four fault fragments in the Sea of Marmara that did not break between 240 and 510 years, and said, "The most risky of these, the fault line that we predict to break, starts from where the Osmangazi Bridge is and extends to the north of İmralı Island, with a potential of reaching 7.6 magnitude. eastern Marmara line,'' he said.

'A TERRIBLE SITUATION ARISE'In an earthquake to occur in the Northern Marmara, the population density per square kilometer of Istanbul is 3 thousand people. And after that it was exponentially gone. The number of residences per square kilometer in Istanbul is 340. There were 25 structures in the earthquake area. There are 340, about 7 floors in Istanbul, in Istanbul. Therefore, there is no need to talk more about what happens in Istanbul. When you look at the ratio, a terrible situation emerges.DATE EXPECTATION IN ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKEErcan also suggested that this expected earthquake could not happen before 2045. In another statement on history, Naci Görür said, "It was expected within 30 years, 23 years have passed."prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz, "The worst-case scenario, the earthquake's intensity is 7.5... These scenarios are not to scare people, but to take precautions... Population and building density are not increased in places where disasters will occur. I wish we had reduced this intensity after 1999. The situation in Istanbul is not acceptable,'' he said.

EARTHQUAKE POSSIBILITY 64 PERCENT

This unfractured area will somehow break and discharge its energy and a massive earthquake will occur. Magnitude 7.1, 7.2 but still a big earthquake. 64 percent probability by 2030s, 75 percent probability by 2050s, 2090 This earthquake will happen with a 95 percent probability until the 1950s. But this does not mean that this earthquake will definitely happen in 2090."